The recent reduction in global crude oil prices and the renewed naira-for-crude agreement for local refiners could soon push petrol prices down to around N800 per litre, according to oil marketers and industry insiders who spoke on Wednesday. This prediction is tied to continued oil price declines and reduced reliance on foreign exchange for petroleum imports.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has already taken notable steps in this direction. On Wednesday, it reduced its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly called petrol, from N865 to N835 per litre. This is the second price cut in less than a week and the third in the last six weeks. These adjustments come amid efforts by the company to offer more affordable fuel to Nigerians.
A document seen by reporters and a statement from the company confirmed the new gantry price. It states: “Dangote Petroleum Refinery is pleased to announce a reduction in the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol, from N865 to N835, effective from Wednesday, 16th April 2025. This marks the second price reduction within a week.”
The refinery also revealed that its partners — including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Tecno Oil — will now sell petrol at lower retail prices across different regions. In Lagos, prices are expected to range from N890 to N920 per litre, depending on location. Other regions will also see price reductions of N20 to N30 per litre.
The refinery noted that the downward adjustment is meant to support consumers and boost local economic activity. It also mentioned that diesel and cooking gas prices have been revised recently, though some prices are still on hold pending further changes.
Oil industry analysts believe this could be the beginning of more reductions. With Brent crude trading at about $65 per barrel and expectations that it may drop further to $50, the door is open for petrol prices to fall as low as N700 in the near future. According to Chinedu Ukadike of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, “When crude price reaches $50 per barrel, then it is possible to reach between N650 to N700 per litre petrol price.”
Ukadike explained that the resumption of the naira-for-crude policy — where refiners are supplied crude oil in exchange for refined products sold in naira — is key to the current downward trend. He added that the recent shift in government policy, particularly by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), has already started influencing the pricing system and easing pressure on foreign exchange.
He noted, “It is affecting marketers, but based on the naira-for-crude, the effect must be reflected in the pump price… It won’t be fair for [Dangote Refinery] to remain at the former price.”
Energy consultant Olatide Jeremiah also backed the development, saying, “The crude oil decline and renewal of naira-for-crude policy is a double-edged advantage for Nigerians… pump price may hit N700/litre soon.”
Jeremiah further claimed that the recent cuts have sparked a price war between Dangote and private depot owners, who now face potential losses due to higher landing costs on their remaining stock.
However, not everyone is pleased with the ongoing changes. Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, president of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, raised concerns that such quick and frequent price changes could cause instability in the sector.
Meanwhile, recent data from the Nigerian Ports Authority and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria showed that six vessels delivered a total of 117,000 metric tonnes (about 157 million litres) of petrol between April 8 and 16 through ports in Lagos and Calabar. The average landing cost for petrol dropped to about N853 per litre this week, further fueling the downward trend.
Government officials say the naira-for-crude deal is not temporary but a long-term plan to boost local refining and reduce reliance on foreign currency. The Ministry of Finance confirmed that this policy aims to ensure Nigeria’s energy security and lower domestic fuel costs sustainably.
