As Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle steps into the spotlight, global attention has shifted toward Asia as the region edges closer to a historic milestone.
With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, speculation has surged over who will be elected as the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church. According to British bookmaker William Hill, Tagle is now the frontrunner to succeed the late pope, surpassing long-time favorite Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy.
The Catholic Church, which boasts over 1.4 billion followers around the world, holds considerable spiritual and cultural sway. As such, the selection of a new pope will not only shape the future direction of the Church but also influence key global conversations—from humanitarian efforts to moral and ethical issues.
Tagle, the former Archbishop of Manila, now heads the Vatican’s Dicastery for Evangelization. He currently leads the betting with odds of 9/4 (30.8%), ahead of Parolin at 5/2 (28.6%). Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana stands third at 5/1 (16.7%), followed by Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna, at 11/2 (15.4%).
Tagle’s rise in the betting markets is notable, as he was previously trailing Parolin just days earlier. On April 25, Parolin had odds of 5/2 (28.6%), with Tagle close behind at 11/4 (26.7%). The recent shift suggests growing momentum behind the Filipino cardinal.
If chosen, Tagle would be the first Asian pope in history—a groundbreaking moment for the global Church. The BBC has described him as a moderate figure and noted his compassionate views toward migrants. In 2015, he urged Church leaders to reassess their stance on divorce and homosexuality, calling for greater understanding. However, he maintains strong opposition to abortion, calling it a “form of murder.”
Meanwhile, Cardinal Parolin continues to command respect within Vatican circles for his diplomatic skills. He played a key role in facilitating dialogue between the United States and Cuba and is seen as someone who values progress while honoring the Church’s traditions. He once referred to Ireland’s decision to legalize same-sex marriage as “a defeat for humanity.”
The process of selecting the next pope will begin on May 7, when the College of Cardinals enters the papal conclave. Voting is conducted in secret, with cardinals casting ballots up to four times a day until a candidate receives two-thirds support. When that happens, white smoke will rise from the Sistine Chapel to announce the new pope.
Tagle’s recent surge in odds has stirred excitement. “With only a few days to go before the conclave to elect the next Pope begins there’s been a shake up in our betting market, with Luis Antonio Tagle assuming favoritism at 9/4, having been backed in from 3/1,” said Lee Phelps, spokesperson for William Hill. “Tagle would become the first Asian pontiff if elected and has overtaken long-time favorite Pietro Parolin in the market at 5/2.”
Francis’ funeral was held on April 26, attended by global leaders including former U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Prince William.
